Royal LePage House Price Forecast for Atlantic Canada
April 18, 2024Converting Your Home Into an Eco Friendly Space
June 7, 2024People in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver are setting their sights on these Atlantic Canadian cities.
In a report released last week, Royal LePage® Canada outlined the top 15 most affordable cities in Canada to purchase a home, taking into account each city’s cost of housing at the end of the first quarter, the cost of a monthly mortgage payment, and income levels. With housing costs soaring across the country, we were delighted to see that more than 26% of the list were cities in Atlantic Canada.
With a large number of buyers waiting on the sidelines to see where Bank of Canada interest rate decisions will land in the coming months, there are a number of people in those larger city centres who are considering an inter-provincial relocation to more affordable cities. “According to a recent Royal LePage survey of Canadians living in the greater regions of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, conducted by Hill & Knowlton,[1] half of respondents (50%) say they would consider buying a property in one of Canada’s most affordable Canadian cities, if they were able to find a job or work remotely. Among renters in these regions, 60 per cent say they’d be willing to relocate, while 45 per cent of current homeowners say they would consider it.”, Royal LePage® Canada
Read below for the Atlantic Canadian highlights from their recent report:
ATLANTIC CANADA
Based on the percentage of income required to service a monthly mortgage payment, using provincial median household income data[3] and city-level aggregate home price data,[4] Saint John, New Brunswick, ranks second among the most affordable cities in Canada, and ranks first among the Atlantic provinces. The mortgage calculation is based on a three-year fixed-term loan at 5.71 per cent, amortized over 25 years with a 20 per cent down payment. In Saint John, 25.1 per cent of a household’s monthly income would be required.
Out of the 15 most affordable cities in Canada, four are in the Atlantic provinces. St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, ranks seventh among the most affordable cities in Canada where 30.1 per cent of a household’s monthly income would be required to service a mortgage payment.
“With its variety of recreational activities and beautiful landscapes, St.John’s offers a relaxed lifestyle away from the so-called rat race. People who relocate to Atlantic Canada are often seeking a cultural change that offers a quieter and more peaceful living environment,” said Jerry Boyles, sales representative, Royal LePage Property Consultants in St. John’s, Newfoundland & Labrador. “Pre-pandemic, relocation to St.John’s from out-of-town residents was often reserved for buyers moving for work, such as those in the military. Once the mass migration to the East Coast began in 2020, we started to receive daily calls from residents in Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia who were seeking more space and affordable housing options. This includes property investors, those retired or semi-retired, and homeowners who were looking to sell their existing property and upgrade.”
Boyles added that homes in the region have historically aligned with local residents’ incomes, but this balance has been shifting in recent years as a result of interprovincial migration, which is putting pressure on supply and pushing prices up in both the resale and rental segments.
“Housing in St. John’s has become less affordable over time, but still remains accessible to the average Canadian. Relative to home prices across the country, St. John’s is expected to continue to be affordable for the long-term. However, labour shortages, zoning restrictions and a general resistance to densification will challenge the creation of new homes needed to meet demand in the future, forcing prices upward.”
Fredericton, New Brunswick, ranks eleventh among the most affordable cities in Canada where 32.0 per cent of a household’s monthly income would be required to service a mortgage payment. Charlottetwon, Prince Edward Island, ranks fourteenth among the most affordable cities in Canada where 36.6 per cent of a household’s monthly income would be required to service a mortgage payment.
“Fredericton is ideal for homebuyers seeking the familiarity of small-town living with city convenience. People who relocate here from outside of the Maritimes are often looking for an escape from high-density locations and for better access to the great outdoors, in addition to more affordable housing options,” said Darlene Tidd, manager, Royal LePage Atlantic in Fredericton, New Brunswick. “As was the case for many communities across the Atlantic, we noticed a sharp uptick in the number of residents relocating to Fredericton at the start of the pandemic, many of whom came from Ontario. Many buyers with family roots in the region moved back for a slower pace of life – some purchased here entirely sight unseen. Not only have we witnessed a slowdown in the number of out-of-province residents moving here over the past year, we have also experienced a slight reversal, as those who struggled to adapt to a more rural living environment have moved back to their province of origin.”
Tidd noted that single-family homes, townhouses and duplexes are popular choices among homebuyers moving into the region from other provinces, as these desirable housing types are more financially attainable. As a result, this has created significant price appreciation in these segments of the market over time.
“I expect that Fredericton’s real estate market will remain affordable for the foreseeable future, thanks to the efforts made to build new housing supply in the region,” said Tidd. “The city has focused on the creation of higher-density, mixed-use housing types and rental suites, which will provide more housing options for all.”
Royal LePage 2024 Most Affordable Canadian Cities – Data Chart: rlp.ca/2024-Most-Affordable-Canadian-Cities-Chart
View property listings in Saint John, St. John’s, Fredericton and Charlottetown.
Read the full article here: https://www.royallepage.ca/en/realestate/news/half-of-residents-in-canadas-largest-urban-centres-eyeing-move-to-more-affordable-real-estate-markets/
About the Report
Royal LePage’s Affordability Factor is based on the percentage of income required to service a monthly mortgage payment, using Statistics Canada 2022 provincial median total income of economic families and persons not in an economic family, and city-level aggregate home price data from the Royal LePage Q1 2024 House Price Survey. The mortgage calculation is based on a three-year fixed-term loan at 5.71%, amortized over 25 years with a 20% down payment.
About the Survey
Hill & Knowlton used the Leger Opinion online panel to survey 900 Canadian residents, aged 18+, living in Canada’s three largest urban centres: Greater Toronto, Greater Montreal, and Greater Vancouver. The survey was completed between May 13th and May 16th, 2024. Equal sampling was done within each city, with age and gender quotas. Weighting was applied to reflect the relative sizes of the three cities, according to 2021 census figures. No margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample (i.e., a web panel in this case). For comparative purposes, a probability sample of 900 respondents would have a margin of error of ±3%, 19 times out of 20.
About Royal LePage
Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of approximately 20,000 real estate professionals in over 670 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage® Shelter Foundation™, which has been dedicated to supporting women’s shelters and domestic violence prevention programs for 25 years. Royal LePage is a Bridgemarq Real Estate Services® Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE. For more information, please visit www.royallepage.ca.
Royal LePage® is a registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada and is used under licence by Bridgemarq Real Estate Services® Inc.
For further information, please contact:
Kaleigh Ambrose
Hill & Knowlton on behalf of Royal LePage
kaleigh.ambrose@hillandknowlton.com
(416) 413-4624
[1]Hill & Knowlton used the Leger Opinion online panel to survey 900 Canadian residents, aged 18+, living in Canada’s three largest urban areas: Greater Toronto, Greater Montreal, and Greater Vancouver between May 13th and May 16th, 2024. No margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample (i.e., a web panel in this case). For comparative purposes, though, a probability sample of 900 respondents would have a margin of error of ±3%, 19 times out of 20.
[2]Royal LePage’s Affordability Factor is based on the percentage of income required to service a monthly mortgage payment, using Statistics Canada 2022 provincial median total income of economic families and persons not in an economic family, and city-level aggregate home price data from the Royal LePage Q1 2024 House Price Survey. The mortgage calculation is based on a three-year fixed-term loan at 5.71%, amortized over 25 years with a 20% down payment.
[3] Statistics Canada. Table 11-10-0190-01 Market income, government transfers, total income, income tax and after-tax income by economic family type, using 2022 provincial median total income of economic families and persons not in an economic family
[4] Royal LePage Q1 2024 House Price Survey, April 12, 2024